However, given the recent decline in oil prices and the downward trend in economic indicators, a more substantial cut of 50 bps is necessary to kickstart the process. If the Fed doesn’t begin normalizing rates now and the economy worsens, it may be forced into more aggressive cuts of 75 bps in the coming meetings just to return to the neutral range of 2.5% to 3%. Waiting too long could extend the timeline for rate cuts to be effective, potentially dragging the economic upturn out over a year and a half to two years. This delay would increase the likelihood of economic difficulties and necessitate even more Fed intervention. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-09-09/feds-history-lesson-says-50bp-cut-base-case